Freedom24 - Trading on stock exchanges

Freedom24 analysts shared their latest geopolitical market analysis with Jornal Económico, examining how the conflict involving Iran is reshaping global financial dynamics in 2026. According to the experts, recent attacks between the US, Israel and Iran on 28 February shifted the focus of global markets away from inflation and central bank policy toward geopolitical risk. In this context, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a key indicator of global economic stability, with market reactions already reflecting heightened uncertainty. 🌐 The partial halt of traffic through the strait, which handles around 20% of the world’s oil supply, immediately affected market sentiment. Brent crude futures rose by 7% at the opening of trading, reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium rather than an immediate supply shortage. Freedom24 analysts note that historically markets react not simply to conflict, but to the impact of rising energy costs on the broader economy. ⛽️ “Energy supplies from the Persian Gulf remain relevant to the continent's industrial stability. A prolonged disruption would directly affect gas and electricity costs, with immediate consequences for key industrial sectors in Germany, Italy and the eurozone as a whole. For this reason, European bonds have been functioning as a defensive asset and expectations of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank have been moderate,” states Freedom24. Analysts highlight that the key indicator for investors will be the price of crude oil rather than military developments. If oil remains below $90 per barrel, the macroeconomic impact will be manageable. Above that level, we enter a scenario of structural inflation that could affect the entire year of 2026. 🔗 Read more on Jornal Económico