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Substitution Bias in Expenses The consumer basket often includes substitute goods to smooth out inflation peaks. If beef becomes more expensive, the methodology may shift focus to chicken, assuming that a rational consumer will switch to a cheaper product. This approach completely ignores reality: household habits are conservative, and nutritional quality falls during "forced substitution." As a result, the CPI shows stability while the population's standard of living is slowly declining. Look for real inflation not in government reports, but in your local grocery store receipt from last year. This is the only objective indicator of your personal economy. #inflation #budget