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Refined products market tightens again as global runs and exports fall
Global refined product markets are moving back into a supply squeeze. S&P Global Energy estimates refinery runs in July were 7.5 million b/d below July 2025 levels, with second-half 2026 global runs now seen averaging 80.1 million b/d, down 2.4 million b/d versus the previous outlook. Exports from key suppliers have fallen 30%, or 4 million b/d, since the start of the conflict versus the same period of 2025, while gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are back near $130-170/bbl.
The pressure points are concentrated and mutually reinforcing: renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, a collapse in Russian product supply, Russia’s July 8 diesel export ban, and China maintaining export constraints. In the Middle East, crude runs are expected to average about 8 million b/d in 2026, roughly 1.6 million b/d below 2025. Russian diesel exports had already dropped about 500,000 b/d year on year before the ban, and the restriction has now removed 10% of waterborne diesel supply from the market. China is not filling the gap either, with July crude throughput almost 2.9 million b/d below year-ago levels. That leaves US refiners, running at a record 96% utilization, as the main balancing source just ahead of hurricane season and fall maintenance.
The refined products complex is now trading a capacity problem rather than a crude problem, and the buffer to absorb the next disruption is close to exhausted.
🔎 Source
@songofoil
