DM Traders - торговые стратегии

*Market Update: Week starting 29th NOV 2021* Last week the NIFTY closed at 17026.45 registering a loss of 4.16% over previous week. The market succumbed to panic selling and NIFTY fell to nearly 3 month low on Friday. So far the markets have corrected around 8% from their record highs. Not just India but the markets were affected globally due to rising fears of new COVID-19 variant in South Africa and resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several European nations. Concerns over Fed rate hike, heavy selling by FII's and government's decision to repeal farm laws caused selling pressure in the market. The FII selling intensified in the month of November where they have net sold more than Rs 21000 crore worth of shares the last week taking the total monthly selling to over Rs 31000 crore. In October they've offloaded around Rs 25000 crore. Though DII's have managed to buy but their buying is not enough to support the markets. We need FII's to pump in money for the markets to sustain and continue their rally. Going forward, the market is likely to continue being under pressure till clarity emerges over the new Covid variant and if the FII selling continues. This week the focus will be more on severity of new COVID-19 variant, monthly auto sales numbers, Q2 GDP data, and FII flow. Auto sales for November will be keenly watched. Hence Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, M&M, Maruti Suzuki etc will be in focus. The GDP data for July-September will be released on November 30. Markit Manufacturing PMI for November will be released on December 1. Deposit & Bank Loan growth for the fortnight ended November 19 will also be announced on November 26. On COVID front India has largely been seeing a constant fall in daily addition of cases with having reported less than 11000 cases on daily basis. On vaccination front around 121 crore doses have been administered in the country with more than 35% people being fully vaccinated. On crude front, brent crude futures has fallen more than 12% from its recent high. What should be our strategy going forward? we personally feel that in the current markets there would be lot of opportunities to invest. It would be wise to grab the opportunity and invest in stocks that are backed by strong fundamentals and sound management. Though the number of recommendations may be less, the recommendations will certainly have quality tag to it. *Technical View* The NIFTY witnessed a large bearish candle on the daily as well as weekly charts. We should expect negative sentiments and volatility in the coming week. 17000 will be the all-important support for NIFTY. There is a great chance of potential recovery if NIFTY sustains 17000. A breach below 17000 would bring NIFTY to 16600-16700 which would be a retracement level as per Fibonacci. India VIX has shot up by 40% from 14.86 to 20.80 levels on a weekly basis and a spike of around 25% on a daily basis. We certainly cannot take fresh positions with this volatility index. Option data is indicating that NIFTY could trade in a very broad range of 16500-17500 levels. We should certainly keep a low profile and be on the wait and watch mode looking for quality picks. Let’s allow the dust to settle down. Stay disciplined on all existing positions. No need to hit the panic button yet. Such markets are full of opportunities and we should be on the hunt to grab them. Happy investing. All the best! DM Traders