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A major Italian news outlet La Stampa featured expert commentary from Francesco Bergamini, Tied Agent in Italy for Freedom Finance Europe. In the article, he explores the rapid rise of prediction markets, a segment estimated at around $50 billion in 2025, and explains why this emerging space is attracting growing attention from both institutional and retail investors. The discussion reveals a broader shift in how markets interpret and price future events, making it a timely topic for today’s investment landscape. 📊
"Over the past two years, markets have discussed almost exclusively macroeconomics—inflation, Fed rates, and the trajectory of the US economy. Investors are trying to assess central bank policy rather than companies. In this context, a market has begun to form that is directly linked not to economic indicators, but to the events themselves that influence the economy," explains Francesco. Discussing how probability trading works, he says: "The market structure is extremely simple. The contract pays $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it doesn't. The price effectively becomes the probability. A contract trading at $0.65 means that the market estimates the probability of the event at 65%." 📈
Francesco also points to the key factor that will determine the future of this market, emphasizing the importance of regulation as the industry evolves. "The main risk now is not overestimating the inevitability of this market's emergence. Financial history shows that the fate of new instruments is determined not by demand, but by regulatory definition. ETFs were once on the verge of being banned, and some derivatives have actually been banned. Therefore, a rational strategy is to monitor regulation, prepare for possible IPOs, and follow potential beneficiaries, primarily exchanges and betting platforms, which could be the first to implement event-based trading."
🔗 Read more on La Stampa