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A SIMPLE BREAK-EVEN MODEL FOR TELEGRAM ACQUISITION
You do not need a complex dashboard to estimate whether a test can make economic sense. Start with four inputs:
💛 gross profit from one new customer;
💛 lead-to-customer conversion;
💛 entry-to-lead conversion;
💛 the share of gross profit you are willing to spend on acquisition.
Example:
Gross profit per new customer: $600
Target acquisition spend: 40% of gross profit
Maximum CAC: $240
Lead-to-customer conversion: 12%
Maximum cost per qualified lead:
$240 × 12% = $28.80
Entry-to-lead conversion: 8%
Maximum cost per channel entry, subscriber or bot start:
$28.80 × 8% = $2.30
This does not mean every entry priced below $2.30 is profitable. The model still needs to account for traffic quality, delayed conversions, refunds, sales capacity and measurement accuracy. But it gives the campaign a boundary. If the observed cost per entry is $1.20, the team has room to evaluate quality and scale carefully. If it is $4.50, there are only three rational options:
1. improve the advertising cost;
2. improve conversion after the click;
3. increase the confirmed value of a customer.
The model also shows where optimisation matters most. A small improvement in entry-to-lead conversion can increase the allowable traffic cost without changing the ad account.
Replace the example numbers with your own. The result becomes the starting hypothesis for the test - not a guarantee, but a decision framework. Before launching Telegram Ads, let’s calculate your allowable CAC, CPL and entry cost: Ссылка скрыта
