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🇺🇸 Fed September Rate Hike Expectations Ease, Market Increasingly Leans Toward a Rate Hold
🇺🇸 美联储9月加息预期降温，市场越来越倾向维持利率不变
The market is now increasingly leaning toward NO Fed rate hike in September.
📌 What’s happening?
• Market-implied probability of a September hike has fallen to around 32–35%
• This means roughly 65–68% probability of no hike
• Several economists/analysts are also leaning toward a September hold
• Dongwu Securities maintains its view that the Fed will not hike rates this year
📉 Why are expectations changing?
US inflation has shown signs of cooling, while recent economic data has reduced the urgency for the Fed to raise rates.
Dongwu Securities expects inflation to continue trending lower in the coming months. If oil prices remain stable, US inflation could eventually fall back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
💡 What does this mean for markets?
If the upcoming US jobs report and August CPI remain soft:
➡️ September rate-hike expectations could fall further
➡️ US Treasury yields could move lower
➡️ USD could weaken
➡️ Gold could benefit
➡️ Growth & technology stocks could receive additional support
⚠️ But one important point:
A September rate hold does not necessarily mean the Fed will not hike at all this year.
Inflation is still above the 2% target, and oil prices remain a key risk.
👉 For now, the market is increasingly pricing in “Fed hold in September” rather than “Fed hike.”
The next major market-moving data will be the August US jobs report and August CPI before the September FOMC meeting.