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➡💶➡ Euro trading scenarios: which levels could activate the next move
EURUSD trades near 1.1540, up about 0.1%. It holds below resistance at 1.1560 inside a narrow range. Find the bullish and bearish setups below 💙
🪙 Key takeaways
• Events. The euro has traded in a tight band, with live prices around 1.1525–1.1542 💶 Neither the nearby support nor the resistance has broken. Momentum indicators show signs of weakening bullish momentum.
• Background. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its target range on 29 July 2026. Markets now lean toward another hold on 16 September, with the probability near 65%, while a rate hike is priced at about 35%. These rate expectations, as well as oil-price swings and Strait of Hormuz tensions, remain key macro drivers for the euro.
• Potential triggers. Three releases could shape the next move. The eurozone GDP and preliminary Q2 employment data arrive at 9:00 a.m. UTC. Also, U.S. retail sales for July follow at 12:30 p.m. UTC (forecast: +0.3% month-on-month; consensus: +0.1%; previous: +0.2%).
🪙 Tip for traders
If the price breaks above 1.1560, the bullish scenario could target weekly resistance at 1.1645 📈 Softer U.S. data could support that move by pressuring the dollar. A break below support at 1.1470 would favour the bearish case toward the 50-day moving average around 1.1466. Stronger U.S. data could strengthen that scenario by boosting the dollar.
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