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GULF DISTURBANCE⚠️ Regardless of organized tropical development, pay attention early next week for a Gulf Coast heavy rain threat.
Fairly robust tropical wave moving into the Southern Gulf Friday. Presently drenching the Yucatan. Fortunately, moderate wind shear and dry air will likely hinder quick development.
It's possible that the system organizes into a Tropical Depression before moving into Mexico by Saturday. National Hurricane Center remains unenthused with a low, 10% chance of development. A few AI Ensemble models flirt with the idea of idea of something more organized by early next week, but that solution remains less likely for now.
The bigger concern? Tropical moisture likely to uptick rain chances (potentially significantly) along the northwest Gulf Coast by early next week.
The combination of a slow moving frontal boundary along with the infusion of deep tropical moisture from the disturbance could spell trouble for heavy rain for someone next week 6/15-6/17.
Exact locations and amounts still very hazy, but hot spots of 6+” likely. Watch by Monday-Wednesday next week as a heavy rain risk could return to the forecast. WDSU News